As a side note, this is the first year with 10 Nominees for Best Picture, and a preferential ballot. So lets see how things actually play out. Either way, it is a very good year for nominees overall, failures still seen on the Best Song and not any major presence of foreign films on main categories, but alas, it IS an american award.
From least to major categories (closer to how the night will play out). I will retain myself from predicting short categories.
Best Documentary
WILL WIN: Food Inc.
SHOULD WIN: The Cove
So we have a great field of contenders this year. I feel like The Cove is the most entertaining and in some ways groundbreaking, but Food Inc., also a very catchy and very well made doc, will hit harder with the American audience. Keep in mind that these is a categories that only those who've proved to have seen all nominees can vote.
Best Animated Film
WILL WIN: Up
SHOULD WIN: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Very good year of nominees as well, with the refreshing surprise of "The Secret of Kells" among. I like both of the favorites, but there can be only one winner, the Best Pict nominee.
Best Song
WILL WIN: Weary Kind "Crazy Heart"
SHOULD WIN: Weary Kind "Crazy Heart"
Controversy comes in the form of a "no show" of the song nominees at these year festivities, producers say the nominees are too weak and unrecognizable. Well I beg to differ, and the best and more soul full one at least is the one that is going to win.
Best Make Up
WILL WIN: Star Trek
SHOULD WIN: Ill Divo
An interesting range of nominees indeed. Ill Divo especially, after premiering at Cannes two years ago. But as the academy vote en large in this, the most seen and popular is your winner.
An interesting range of nominees indeed. Ill Divo especially, after premiering at Cannes two years ago. But as the academy vote en large in this, the most seen and popular is your winner.
Best Visual FX
WILL WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
Is there a contest? Just take home the oscar already.
Is there a contest? Just take home the oscar already.
Best Sound Editing
WILL WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
Again. (even tough Up & Star Trek have pretty original sound creations as well... but they stand no chance to the biggest film of all time*)
Again. (even tough Up & Star Trek have pretty original sound creations as well... but they stand no chance to the biggest film of all time*)
Best Sound Mixing
WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
and if the biggest film of all time* looses here does it loose the ultimate goal? Safe thinking and rational one would give it the award as it is, but something about the mood and explosions of the locker makes me think the academy might start changing gears in the night here.
and if the biggest film of all time* looses here does it loose the ultimate goal? Safe thinking and rational one would give it the award as it is, but something about the mood and explosions of the locker makes me think the academy might start changing gears in the night here.
Best Foreign Film
WILL WIN: The Secret of Her Eyes
SHOULD WIN: The White Ribbon
Two masterpieces nominates and the oscar might go to the most sensitive and "traditional" effort... well the world turns around as it is and no one can change the laws of gravity.
Two masterpieces nominates and the oscar might go to the most sensitive and "traditional" effort... well the world turns around as it is and no one can change the laws of gravity.
Best Score
WILL WIN: Up
SHOULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
Again. Safe and expert money gives it to Up (one more scratch at Avatar's amour, although it does stand a chance). But "The Hurt Locker" sensory subjectivity in score is the real breakthrough here... all the rest is the classical orchestra.
Again. Safe and expert money gives it to Up (one more scratch at Avatar's amour, although it does stand a chance). But "The Hurt Locker" sensory subjectivity in score is the real breakthrough here... all the rest is the classical orchestra.
Best Editing
WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: The Hurt Locker
It is again the David and Goliath battle, and both would richly deserve the award. Most Best Picture winners take home the editing award as well (more than any other relative prize-except Director) and so whoever wins this takes home the ultimate goal. The things is that what makes "The Hurt Locker" function as it does is the mystery and pacing that are mounted up from the footage, acting and story captured and thus tension (extreme) is created. I believe most voters are film connoisseurs to the level of understanding how fundamental editing is, and its skill and precision is used more obviously in the front runner (not putting down the on-time on-set editing that had to be created for the top grosser Avatar).
It is again the David and Goliath battle, and both would richly deserve the award. Most Best Picture winners take home the editing award as well (more than any other relative prize-except Director) and so whoever wins this takes home the ultimate goal. The things is that what makes "The Hurt Locker" function as it does is the mystery and pacing that are mounted up from the footage, acting and story captured and thus tension (extreme) is created. I believe most voters are film connoisseurs to the level of understanding how fundamental editing is, and its skill and precision is used more obviously in the front runner (not putting down the on-time on-set editing that had to be created for the top grosser Avatar).
Best Costume Design
WILL WIN: Nine
SHOULD WIN: Bright Star
Again a category without front runners, common sense would give the award to "The Young Victoria", but since the academy vote at large I believe most would be have seen nine and would be lazy to watch other movies in "minor" categories.
Again a category without front runners, common sense would give the award to "The Young Victoria", but since the academy vote at large I believe most would be have seen nine and would be lazy to watch other movies in "minor" categories.
Best Art Direction
WILL WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
A strange range of nominations I'd say, there were a lot of deserving movies that could be here this year including Best Picture nominee "Inglorious Basterds" and indie mainstream "Where The Wild Things Are", but as it is the marvelous scenery of Pandora has it on the bag.
A strange range of nominations I'd say, there were a lot of deserving movies that could be here this year including Best Picture nominee "Inglorious Basterds" and indie mainstream "Where The Wild Things Are", but as it is the marvelous scenery of Pandora has it on the bag.
Best Cinematography
WILL WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: The White Ribbon
A very good selection of nominations, with one or two more mainstream works that could be replaced by something with more edge (like Antichrist or Where The Wild Things Are), but alas, "The White Ribbon" surprisingly won the category prize for its sensible BW shadows and precise and intriguing framings but as it happens most of the times in Oscar the epic and grandeur overshadows the rest, so even being digitally created and crafted the visions of Avatar are just too colorful and strong to ignore. And it will be a deserving winner.
A very good selection of nominations, with one or two more mainstream works that could be replaced by something with more edge (like Antichrist or Where The Wild Things Are), but alas, "The White Ribbon" surprisingly won the category prize for its sensible BW shadows and precise and intriguing framings but as it happens most of the times in Oscar the epic and grandeur overshadows the rest, so even being digitally created and crafted the visions of Avatar are just too colorful and strong to ignore. And it will be a deserving winner.
Best Adapted Screenplay
WILL WIN: Up in the Air
SHOULD WIN: Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay
WILL WIN: Inglorious Basterds
SHOULD WIN: A Serious Man
Best Supporting Actress
WILL WIN: M'Onique "Precious"
SHOULD WIN: M'Onique "Precious"
Locked and deserved.
Locked and deserved.
Best Supporting Actor
WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz "Inglorious Basterds"
SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz "Inglorious Basterds"
Locked, loaded and deserved.
Locked, loaded and deserved.
Best Leading Actress
WILL WIN: Gabourney Sidibe "Precious"
SHOULD WIN: Carey Mulligan "An Education"
I'm getting it out there and calling this the upset of the night, ala Adrien Brody, actually in the shoes of the Pianist. Why? Something tells me that there is a fierce competition going on between favorite Sandra Bullock and second and all time favorite Meryl Street (like Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson back in 2002) and that as an outcome a split vote will happen. A lot dont wanna embrace Sandra (she just doesn't come across as an oscar winner... yet) and Meryl, well, she is brilliant but this is not her top notch performance in a top notch movie. And so... there comes the charming and well deserving Sidibe. She has been walking the carpet, she has a popular and edgy film-performance behind her. I know she is young, she is black and does not look like your winner, but I am risking and calling it so. Wise money would give it to Sandra tough.
I'm getting it out there and calling this the upset of the night, ala Adrien Brody, actually in the shoes of the Pianist. Why? Something tells me that there is a fierce competition going on between favorite Sandra Bullock and second and all time favorite Meryl Street (like Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson back in 2002) and that as an outcome a split vote will happen. A lot dont wanna embrace Sandra (she just doesn't come across as an oscar winner... yet) and Meryl, well, she is brilliant but this is not her top notch performance in a top notch movie. And so... there comes the charming and well deserving Sidibe. She has been walking the carpet, she has a popular and edgy film-performance behind her. I know she is young, she is black and does not look like your winner, but I am risking and calling it so. Wise money would give it to Sandra tough.
Best Leading Actor
WILL WIN: Jeff Bridges "Crazy Heart"
SHOULD WIN: Jeremy Renner "The Hurt Locker"
Locked, loaded, charmed, recognized, and not so sure if the most deserving of the field. In my humble opinion.
Locked, loaded, charmed, recognized, and not so sure if the most deserving of the field. In my humble opinion.
Best Director
WILL WIN: Kathryn Bigelow "The Hurt Locker"
SHOULD WIN: Kathryn Bigelow "The Hurt Locker"
Giving it to a female and deserving director for such a confident movie is just too big of a story to ignore. And she deserves it.
Giving it to a female and deserving director for such a confident movie is just too big of a story to ignore. And she deserves it.
Best Picture
WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: Avatar
I've been going back and forth about who is going to win the biggie of the night, david, goliath or the basterds? goliath, david or...? and when a situation presents itself like that it always favors the front runner, specially if it is regarded as the best as well. And so my final choice is that. I acknowledged Inglorious for a moment, and it does have a chance but I think that its specificity and recent push is just an setback and not enough time to just get it. And Avatar, well, it might win in the end, it has the money, it has the story, it deserves for the tremendous effort and outcome, but it is also very specific and Cameron already has it. Don't matter how it plays out, and whatever it is said, it will be a close call for the winner. So bring it on!
I've been going back and forth about who is going to win the biggie of the night, david, goliath or the basterds? goliath, david or...? and when a situation presents itself like that it always favors the front runner, specially if it is regarded as the best as well. And so my final choice is that. I acknowledged Inglorious for a moment, and it does have a chance but I think that its specificity and recent push is just an setback and not enough time to just get it. And Avatar, well, it might win in the end, it has the money, it has the story, it deserves for the tremendous effort and outcome, but it is also very specific and Cameron already has it. Don't matter how it plays out, and whatever it is said, it will be a close call for the winner. So bring it on!
Tally
The Hurt Locker - 4
Avatar - 4
Inglorious Basterds - 2
Up - 2
Crazy Heart - 2
All the Rest: 1
Avatar - 4
Inglorious Basterds - 2
Up - 2
Crazy Heart - 2
All the Rest: 1
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